On August 26, Pakistan’s NDMA warned of the Madhopur Dam water release, forecasting high flows at Jassar, Marala and Ganda Singh Wala within 48 hours amid heavy rain upstream in India.
Madhopur Dam water release: expected river impacts
NDMA said the Ravi at Jassar could rise to 80,000–125,000 cusecs, with Jammu Tawi and Munawar Tawi surging into the Chenab.
At Marala, the Chenab may touch 150,000–200,000 cusecs, shifting from medium to high flood.
Similarly, on the Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala, flows could reach 190,000–220,000 cusecs, near severe flood thresholds.
Thein (Ranjit Sagar) Dam is near capacity, raising risks in the Aik, Deg, Bein, Basantar and Palkhu nullahs. Furthermore, NEOC is monitoring round the clock.
Third alert outside Indus Waters Treaty amid NDMA warning
Officials said India has conveyed flood warnings via Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry rather than the Indus Waters Commission.
Now for the third time since New Delhi suspended the treaty in April 2025.
International media reported India shared alerts on “humanitarian grounds” despite the pause in treaty mechanisms.
Indian unprovoked attacks on Pakistani civilians on May-7 strikes alternative narratives of India which targeted civilians to achieve strategic advantage.
Yet, Indian efforts to deter Pakistan failed as Pakistani armed forces launched retaliatory strikes into India.
NDMA urged districts to ready evacuations, secure riverine settlements and follow advisories.
Heavy rainfall is forecast across Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, with record downpours reported.
Downstream communities in Narowal, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Kasur and Bahawalnagar have been advised to stay vigilant for rapid rises and follow local administration instructions.
Punjab’s irrigation and PDMA teams are expected to issue frequent updates on embankments, bridges and crossings.
Citizens should avoid riverbanks, do not attempt fords, charge phones, and keep emergency kits ready until water levels stabilise.
More news on floods: Prime Minister awards Rs2.5m each to shepherds who saved 300 lives
