Pakistan’s disaster management authorities warned on August 29, 2025, of a Lower Indus flood warning as major inflows move downstream between September 3 and 9.
Peak discharges could near 1.2 million cusecs at key barrages.
Lower Indus flood warning
The alert cites rising contributions from eastern rivers.
Officials project significant stress on embankments and low-lying settlements in south Punjab and Sindh during the first half of September.
At Panjnad Headworks on September 3–4, discharges are projected at 900,000–950,000 cusecs without a breach.
Even with an upstream or system breach, flows may still range between 825,000 and 900,000 cusecs.
Timeline at key barrages
At Guddu Barrage (September 5–6), forecasts indicate 800,000–1.1 million cusecs in a no-breach condition.
In addition, factoring total Indus and tributary inflows, peaks could approach 1.2 million cusecs, putting the reach in a very high risk category.
Similarly, Sukkur Barrage (September 6–7) is projected to receive 850,000–1.1 million cusecs.
Given the age of the barrage and nearby levees, authorities have emphasised evacuation planning, reinforcement of weak sections, and close monitoring around vulnerable points.
Further downstream at Kotri Barrage (September 8–9), discharges are estimated between 800,000 and 1,000,000 cusecs.
Elevated flows may persist until roughly September 12–13, sustaining high water and prolonging inundation in the lower Sindh plains and deltaic areas.
Hydraulic load, structures, and freeboard margins
Sustained discharges above 800,000 cusecs increase hydraulic load on guide banks, spurs, and closure bunds.
The longer the peak endures, the greater the fatigue on slopes, pitching, and toe protections.
Operationally, freeboard margins become critical when waves and wind setup coincide with peak flow.
Additionally, field teams should track afflux at upstream heads, tailwater levels, and seepage through inspection roads, early indicators of distress that can precede breaches.
Downstream exposure and delta processes
High flows compress floodplain storage in katcha areas, shifting risk to settlements at natural levee edges.
Backwater effects from Kotri can slow drainage of interior channels and outfalls, extending standing water in villages and cropland.
Prolonged high stage may also remobilize sediments along distributaries and creeks.
This can alter local conveyance, redirecting currents toward weak embankment faces and eroding cattle tracks used as informal levees.
Operational priorities and forecast uncertainty
Administrations have been advised to stage evacuations ahead of the forecast windows: Panjnad (Sept 3–4), Guddu (Sept 5–6), Sukkur (Sept 6–7), and Kotri (Sept 8–9).
Priorities include boat availability, livestock movement corridors, and pre-positioned health services.
Engineers should verify crest levels and stone pitching at vulnerable spurs, map relief cuts, and prepare controlled breaches only as a last resort to relieve pressure on population centers.
Continuous patrolling, night lighting, and community watch teams remain essential.
Forecast bands carry uncertainty of roughly 100,000–200,000 cusecs, depending on upstream releases and local rainfall.
Authorities will issue daily updates as the wave advances; residents are urged to follow official advisories and relocate early from katcha belts.
For live updates on flood in Punjab visit: Live Updates: Punjab flood situation
