The World Economic Forum has strongly supported the creation of new provinces in Pakistan to improve governance and the delivery of public services.
According to the forum’s analysis, Pakistan’s rapidly growing provincial populations pose a major governance challenge, making it essential to expand the institutional framework to support development. When administrative units originally designed for smaller populations are expected to serve much larger, urbanised and unequal populations, decision-making moves further away from citizens.
Pakistan is a clear example of why reforms are necessary and what form they should take, as the country’s population is projected to reach 265 million by 2030. The analysis emphasises the creation of 16 new provinces or 25 new administrative units, which could bring the government closer to the public, improve public service delivery and strengthen fiscal and political accountability across the country.
The report states that Pakistan’s four provinces have an average population of approximately 60 million each. As a result, provincial capitals are located far from many remote districts, while a single provincial government must manage regions with widely differing populations and administrative needs.
This has contributed to weak public services and limited fiscal capacity. Around 28 per cent of children aged five to 16 are out of school, while provinces’ own-source revenue remains below 0.9 per cent of GDP.
These administrative weaknesses also hinder effective planning for challenges such as floods, water shortages, urban population growth and youth employment. According to the report, creating smaller provinces could bring decision-making, budgeting and accountability closer to the public.
Experts suggest dividing each existing province into four parts to establish 16 first-tier governments, reducing the average population per unit from 60 million to approximately 15 million. Another proposal is to establish 23 to 25 units based on population balance or geographical coherence. Alternatively, more than 30 units could be created along existing civil divisions to bring average populations closer to those of other large federations.
For this reform to be effective, new provinces would need adequate and reliable financial resources, taxation powers, strong administrative capacity and clearly defined responsibilities.
Although governments have taken significant steps, including transferring key responsibilities for health and education to provinces through the 18th Constitutional Amendment and the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, many decisions remain far removed from the communities they affect. The provinces’ share of federal taxes was increased from 47.5 per cent to 57.5 per cent.
For example, Lahore has a population of approximately 13 million, while Harnai district in Balochistan has only around 128,000 residents. As a result, policies developed in provincial capitals must often be applied to areas with vastly different realities. Provincial tax authorities have also long faced limited administrative capacity, weak enforcement and inadequate information.
Ultimately, the objective is not simply to increase the number of administrative units, but to align their size, authority, resources and accountability so that governments can adapt as populations grow faster than institutions, bringing decisions and resources closer to the people affected by them.
According to the Planning Commission’s District Education Performance Index, none of the 134 districts assessed qualified for the very high performance category. This reflects the gap between policymakers and districts, budgets and outcomes, as well as authority and accountability.
Other large and diverse countries have repeatedly adjusted their administrative structures as their populations and economies have grown.
Nigeria expanded its original three-region structure to 36 states by 1996. Indonesia has grown from 27 provinces to 38, while Kenya replaced its eight provinces with 47 elected county governments in 2013. In Indonesia, Nigeria and Brazil, the average population of first-tier administrative units is approximately six to eight million—far below Pakistan’s current provincial average of 60 million.
The report examines Pakistan and other emerging economies. Experts warn that examples such as Lebanon demonstrate how administrative fragmentation without adequate fiscal and institutional capacity can be as damaging as excessive centralisation. Municipalities that are too small and financially weak to deliver services may struggle to function effectively.
The report concludes that administrative boundaries, funding and powers must advance together for decentralisation to succeed.
