Web Desk: Investors are once again turning to the Iranian rial as expectations of improved ties between Iran and the United States boost confidence in the currency. Many traders expect sanctions relief to strengthen Iran’s economy and drive further gains in the rial.
However, market analysts warn that the investment remains highly speculative and depends heavily on political developments.
Malik Bostan, chairman of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan, said investors remember the rial’s strong performance after former U.S. President Barack Obama eased some sanctions in 2016.
“At that time, 10 million Iranian rials traded for between 10,000 and 12,000 Pakistani rupees. Later, the value climbed to nearly 60,000 rupees,” Bostan said during an interview with a local television channel.
He said many investors expected the currency to rise even further. However, the United States reimposed sanctions on Iran in 2018 under former President Donald Trump, reversing much of that momentum.
Bostan said investors now see similarities between the current situation and the market conditions that followed the 2016 sanctions relief.
According to him, 10 million Iranian rials traded between 10,000 and 13,000 Pakistani rupees before regional tensions increased and uncertainty returned to the market. As concerns over conflict grew, the value dropped to about 2,000 rupees.
Since reports of a new understanding between Washington and Tehran emerged, the rial has recovered to around 4,000 Pakistani rupees, he said.
Many investors now expect further gains if Iran secures sanctions relief and regains access to frozen overseas assets.
“Some investors believe the rial could return to 60,000 rupees or even reach 100,000 rupees per 10 million rials if both sides finalize a comprehensive agreement,” Bostan said.
Despite that optimism, he stressed that significant risks remain.
“If negotiations fail or tensions rise again, the rial could lose value quickly,” he said. “If both sides reach a lasting agreement, the currency could strengthen substantially.”
Bostan advised investors to focus on short-term opportunities rather than long-term speculation. He suggested selling holdings if the value rises to between 6,000 and 8,000 Pakistani rupees per 10 million rials.
He also urged investors to limit their exposure and avoid committing large sums of money.
Beyond the currency market, Bostan said improved relations between Iran and the United States could benefit Pakistan’s economy. He pointed to the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project as one potential beneficiary.
He said the project could lower Pakistan’s energy costs and support economic growth. In addition, stronger economic activity in Iran could create new opportunities for Pakistani businesses and workers.
Analysts say the rial’s future will depend largely on diplomatic progress and the timing of any sanctions relief. As a result, political developments will likely remain the key driver of investor sentiment in the months ahead.
