A common belief persists in Pakistan that by-elections are always won by parties in power. However, this belief has been proven wrong.
Brand New data has been released by the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN). The data shows independents and opposition parties win nearly one in every four by-polls since 2008.
Pakistan has held over 370 by-elections since 2008, according to FAFEN.
In about 25 percent of these the winning candidate either belonged to a party not in ruling or was an independent.
A total of 126 by-elections were held (37 national, 89 provincial), during PPPP-lead federal government (2008-2013).
About 34 percent (43) contests out of these were either one by independents or opposition parties.
A total of 103 by-elections (36 national, 67 provincial) took place under the PML-N led federal government (2013-2018).
In these by-elections FAFEN data indicates that 26 percent (27) were won by independents or non-ruling parties.
From 2018-2022 during PTI led federal government, about 63 polls were held (19 national, 44 provincial), with 25 percent (16 seats) being won by such candidates that were not in power in federal or province.
The coalition government of PDM from 2022-2023 saw the most interesting pattern. There were 37 by-elections (13 national, 24 provincial) and out of them 21 contests (57 percent) were won by either independent candidates or candidates belonging from the opposition parties.
After the General Elections 2024, a coalition government was formed at the centre with PML-N leading it. Punjab is being governed by PML-N, while Sindh by PPPP, PTI in KP and PML-N-PPPP coalition in Balochistan.
43 by elections (14 national, 29 provincial) have took place since then. With five seats (12 percent) being won by candidates not in government.
FAFEN’s data shows that ruling parties do have an advantage. However, by-elections in Pakistan often see wins for opposition and independent candidates. This challenges the idea that by-polls are just formalities for the government in power.
